2026 Predictions: MVP, Defender of the Year and more

Before we get into the column, thanks to Paul Harvey over at AmericanSoccerAnalysis for collating the MLSsoccer preseason predictions over the past seven years and figuring out who did best (I won't spoil it for you). As I wrote on BlueSky, the thing I love most about ASA is that they're a bunch of hardcore data nerds absolutely hellbent on sequencing the soccer genome, but are also pure shitposters at heart. That's what moves the wheel of history.

Now, obviously I won't be part of the MLSs panel this year, but the good news is I will be part of the Kickback panel! Luminaries like Susannah, Tom, Gass, etc. are all logging their picks as we speak.

We'll probably be revealing everybody's lists on social later this week, and I'll make sure to include links here.

Ok, on with the show. Here's my individual awards picks for 2026:

MVP

The favorite is obviously Leo Messi to make it three straight, and I'd say that Son Heung-min is probably a strong second behind Leo. It's like, what, a 95% chance it's one of those two guys?

There's also a world in which Thomas Müller wins, and then after that you get into scenarios like "Cincy/Nashville set the single-season points record because Evander/Hany go berserk," and even then, with the way voters approach these things, it feels like an extraordinarily long shot.

My pick: Messi. He's still the best player in the league and is a total psycho about playing as many minutes as possible. Unless it's the All-Star Game, of course, which makes me like him even more.

Golden Boot

The top four picks from last week's Golden Boot Draft show on Soccerwise are the only four who wouldn't count as darkhorses in my book: Messi, Son, Denis Bouanga and Sam Surridge.

If you want some darkhorse picks to have fun with... Petar Musa, Brian White, Wessam Abou Ali, Kévin Denkey are all guys who could end up on 25+ and win the boot.

If you want to be a lunatic... Osaze de Rosario's per-90s and underlyings are absolutely insane at every level, and it kind of looks like he's won the starting 9 job for one of the highest-scoring teams in the league. I think he'd be like a 5000-1 long-shot if any sportsbooks had MLS futures, and I would absolutely put $50 on him at those odds.

My pick: Son. With German Berterame in town as the No. 9 Messi will play deeper and focus more on chance creation. He might even threaten Carlos Valderrama's single-season assist record (26), which seems untouchable.

Son, meanwhile, will be LAFC's No. 9 from First Kick and was a holy terror last year. Bet it continues.

Don't sleep on White, though. He had 16g in about 1700 MLS minutes, and 24g in about 2700 across all comps. If he stays healthy there are Wondo-in-2012 possibilities here.

Defender of the Year

I'm keeping my list to three guys – Manu Duah, Jackson Ragen and Micael – even though I could probably go about 12 deep with guys who are real contenders.

Me personally, I always vote for guys who aren't just good defensively on great defensive teams, but whose style is intrinsic to how said team plays the game. Michael Boxall for Minnesota last year, Steven Moreira for Columbus the year before that, etc.

My pick: Duah is gifted in a way that very, very few MLS center backs have ever been. The one reason I'm hesitating to pick him is that he might get sold for, like, $12 million in the summer window.

But that's not enough to stop me. He's my choice.

Goalkeeper of the Year

I'm actually going to make it a four-player list: last year's winner Dayne St. Clair, USMNT No. 1 Matt Freese, former USMNT No. 1 Matt Turner and 2024 Goalkeeper of the Year Kristijan Kahlina.

My pick: Wildcard, bitches! I'm going off my own four-man list and picking FC Dallas homegrown Michael Collodi, who was incredible down the stretch last year.

Collodi's going to benefit from two things here:

1. Dallas is going to continue conceding a lot of shots, which means he'll produce some very obvious "man, he's good!" data, and...
2. They're still going to be an ultra-defensive team, which means people like me will point to him as more crucial to their success than, say, Freese will be for NYCFC.

Young Player of the Year

There's too many to list, but some of the favorites are Olwethu Makhanya, Owen Wolff, Ronald Donkor and Luca Bombino. There is also a world where White gets hurt and Rayan Elloumi gets starter's minutes for Vancouver (if that happens, he's scoring 15 goals), or Seymour Reid wins the job for NYCFC. Plus as of now Niko Tsakiris is San Jose's starting No. 10.

Mateo Silvetti in Miami? Zavier Gozo for RSL? See how I'm just listing guys?

There's a lot. A lot a lot. It's a good sign for the health of the league.

For clarity: anyone born on Jan. 1, 2004 or after is eligible.

My pick: Duah. There aren't many center backs in the world where you text your buddies "turn the game on, this guy's putting on a show."

Duah is one. And the way San Diego play puts all of his skills on display every time out.

Fullback of the Year

We used to make up awards on Extratime because fullbacks and d-mids were never properly appreciated. So... not a real award, here, but I am who I am, so you're getting my prediction.

Guys who sprung to mind were Andy Najar (last year's runner-up), Andrew Gutman (totally underrated, and completely unhinged with how much he overlaps), and Frankie Westfield (good chance he's unleashed with Kai Wagner gone). Note that I refuse to consider attacking wingbacks like Max Arfsten and Ender Echenique as fullbacks here.

My pick: It seems stupid to pick Najar, whose career has been so marred by injury, to log back-to-back healthy seasons in his mid-30s, but I am praying that the soccer gods grant us exactly that.

He was brilliant in 2025. Please give us 3000 more minutes of that in 2026.

D-Mid of the Year

I'm talking pure 6s here, just the back points. No 8s (the Seb Berhalters, Rodrigo de Pauls and Keaton Parks' of the world) need apply.

Cristian Roldan and Andres Cubas were both brilliant in 2025 (excepting finals, in Cubas' case). I loved Donkor's performance, but RBNY probably won't be good enough. David Ayala could really pop for Miami in a more structured build-out and attack.

My pick: Stephen Eustáquio's been excellent with Canada and Porto, and I suspect he'll be both excellent and influential with an LAFC team that will be one of the league's three best.

Gass Theorem Player of the Year

You know this one, right? MLS is a tough league to adjust to, and most players take a year. So this is the award for a 2025 signing who disappointed last season, but lives up to or exceeds expectations in the year to come.

That sound you hear is 50,000 Atlanta United fans changing "Please be Emmanuel Latte Lath! Please be Emmanuel Latte Lath!" in unison.

My pick: Not Latte Lath. I think he'll be better (despite some worrying whispers out of ATL camp over the past couple of weeks), but probably not "oh yeah, that was $22 million well-spent."

Kristoffer Velde feels like a good choice here – he wants all the smoke – and Jonathan Bamba could be, too. But I'm actually going to go with Bruno Damiani. I trust the guy who finds chances to eventually start finishing chances.

Comeback Player of the Year

I wish people would treat this as "who did the best job coming back from an injury" rather than what they often treat it as – "who had a good year after having a bad year?"

Jordan Morris and Hassani Dotson for the Sounders, Walker Zimmerman for Toronto, Rudy Camacho for Columbus, hopefully Brandon Vazquez for Austin and Lewis Morgan for San Diego... gonna be lots to choose from.

My pick: Kelvin Yeboah didn't miss a ton of games outright for the Loons, but he did play hurt most of 2025. For a team that played rugby.

They'll play soccer this year, and... I don't know. I think there's something there.

Newcomer of the Year

Exactly what it sounds like, and man I wish I was depraved enough to go with one of this year's SuperDraft picks. But unfortunately it doesn't look like any of them have won starting jobs.

So it's likely Eustáquio or Berterame, or maybe Josh Sargent if that gets across the line?

My pick: Berterame is going to score a bunch of goals for a team that I think will win the Supporters' Shield, so... there you go.

Best XI

Remember that I'm not a "positionless" guy – I need my Best XI to pretty faithfully represent what roles/positions guys actually play, and I need the team to fit together. There has to be a d-mid, for example, and fullbacks, and there can't be three center forwards. End-of-year Best XIs always drive me nuts because of stuff like that.

I'm going with a 4-2-3-1:

GK: Michael Collodi (FC Dallas)
LB: Andrew Gutman (Chicago)
CB: Manu Duah (San Diego)
CB: Jackson Ragen (Seattle)
RB: Andy Najar (Nashville SC)
DM: Stephen Eustáquio (LAFC)
CM: Keaton Parks (NYCFC)
RW: Leo Messi (Inter Miami)
AM: Thomas Müller (Vancouver Whitecaps)
LW: Hany Mukhtar (Nashville SC)
FW: Son Heung-min (LAFC)

Even with all my grandstanding above I still shoehorned in three No. 10s – Messi's going to spend most of his time playing inside this year, and Hany always plays as a second striker or pure attacking midfielder.

But my XI is, at least, plausible. So I can sleep at night.

Ok, we're less than a week away. Plenty more season preview stuff to come between now and First Kick!