My 2025 MLS playoffs bracket & predictions

If you’ve been keeping up with my output on the MLSsoccer mothership, as well as my appearance earlier this week on the Cooligans, you probably know how I feel about this year’s playoffs.

• Audi 2025 MLS Cup Playoffs tiers: How do teams stack up?

The short version is that I think there are five – or maybe six; I’m now officially waffling on the Union1 – teams that can win this thing. And that Inter Miami is in that group (their defense is better than you think), and that Inter Miami have Leo Messi, and Messi hasn’t won a trophy yet this year, and so…

I am not gong to pick against Messi.

Quick thoughts on each series:

Round 1 West

• Whoever wins the Portland/RSL slapfight is going to get rung up by a San Diego team that seems to have rediscovered their attack over the final two matchdays of the season.

• Minnesota lost themselves over the season’s final 10 games,2 and are now flailing around trying to find a workable formation and even adjusting their game model. Seattle will take advantage of that.

• I think Austin’s going to give LAFC real trouble by mirroring their formation and forcing the Black-and-Gold to build chances via possession against a low block. There might not be a single successful switch hit in this entire series. Modern day catenaccio, baby!

It will not be pretty; LAFC will have to earn it. They have too much talent not to.

• Basically take the above an substitute Vancouver for LAFC and Dallas for Austin. Difference is that Vancouver have been very comfortable attacking low-block defenses all year long, while at the same time are likely to be much more vulnerable in their own box given they’re down to their 6th and 7th-choice CBs (one of whom is actually a d-mid).

Dallas will not be pushovers.3 Petar Musa and Logan Farrington, with Bernie Kamungo reborn as a wingback… man, it’s not the most aesthetically pleasing soccer, but it sparks this weird, primal joy in me because of the pure “fuck you” of it.

I still think Vancouver have too much talent to slip here. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it goes three game, though.

Round 1 East:

• Both Chicago and Orlando (the bracket doesn’t ask for it but I’d pick Chicago to go through) are pretty good teams who are prone to moments of defensive disorganization and sloppiness.

That’s exactly what Philly feast on. In a related note: the Union were a combined 3W-0L-1D with 9 goals scored and just two allowed in four total matches between these teams. Granted, the two against Orlando were way back in the spring, but I’d argue the ‘Cats were actually better then than they are now.

• This one feels like a coin flip. Gonna give NYCFC a slight edge here because, based on what we saw last year, I suspect Dean Smith’s going to want to play tight, low-scoring games that have a good chance of going to penalties.4 And I would not want to face Matt Freese in a PK shootout.

I wouldn’t be shocked if missing Wilfried Zaha in game 1 really came back to hurt the Crown.

• Nashville is good enough to win MLS Cup. I wouldn’t be shocked if they knocked Miami off here – we all saw how rampant they were in the first half on Decision Day.

Still… I am not gong to pick against Messi.

• Columbus just played two of their best games in months, might’ve gotten Daniel Gazdag untracked, got Sean Zawadzki back in the lineup, and it looks like Diego Rossi’s going to join him.

Cincy have won once in their past six against playoff teams and are still so easy to play through.

Round 2 West:

• I’m giving Seattle the nod over San Diego because 1) Seattle have more match-winners,5 and 2) homefield advantage hasn’t actually been much of an advantage for los Niños this year.

• This pick might be stupid, because the ‘Caps, even with their makeshift backline, will get on the ball, come upfield and attack. Which will subsequently give Son & Bouanga space to counter into. Still, this Vancouver team has a special place in my heart (and some very high-level match-winners of their own, obviously).

I wouldn’t be surprised if this matchup produced the best game of the playoffs, and one of the very best in MLS playoff history.

Round 2 East:

• Pascal Jansen will study the film of what Charlotte did to Philly on Decision Day, which makes sense given they’ve got a front line composed of guys who can run and a backline composed of guys who can dump very accurate long-balls into the channels.

Still think they’re one goalscorer short.

• If Vancouver/LAFC isn’t the best game of the tournament than Miami/Columbus will be.

Columbus are really good. But… I am not gong to pick against Messi.

West Final:

• If Pedro de la Vega was healthy I think I’d pick the Sounders.

Sadly, he is not.

Of course, if Tristan Blackmon and Ranko Veselinovic were healthy, I’d pick the ‘Caps without a second though, no matter who was healthy (or not) on Seattle.

Point being, injuries are part of the game. Both these teams have done so well all year dealing with that. I’m giving Vancouver the edge here because they’ll be at home.

East Final:

• Miami’s backline is dodgy enough to have real, significant problems against the Union. We saw some of that during the regular-season in their two meetings.

We also saw Miami score five goals and take four points from those two games. And presumably, throughout this run, they will have Rocco Rios Novo in goal instead of Oscar Ustari, which is one less confounding factor.

The Union will come out guns blazing. And yet… I am not gong to pick against Messi.

MLS Cup

• I chose Miami at the start of the year. They’ve already been to the CCL semis,6 and got out of their Club World Cup group, and made it to the Leagues Cup final.

They are not remotely a perfect team – Ustari lost the No. 1 job late in the season, and I still don’t even know what their best back four is. I’m not sure Javier Mascherano does, either.

Rodrigo de Paul has arguably made them worse. They can randomly not show up for an entire half (as happened against Nashville). Tadeo Allende is… very hit-and-miss in front of goal. Messi, Suarez, Busquets and Alba are old. OLD.

Doesn’t matter. This team is still good enough to be good enough, and Messi is Messi: the greatest player of all-time, the ultimate differentiator.

And yeah… I am not going to pick against him.