Offseason Guides: LAFC, NYCFC & Cincy all head into the lab

We’re officially into hot stove season! Here’s my contribution to that:

• MLS Free Agency Tiers: Top players available for 2026
• MLS Cup 2026: Top 5 way-early contenders

And obviously there’s this Offseason Guides series, which is winding down over the next week. We’ll have these three today, then two more blasts of two each (Philly1 and San Diego on Monday followed by Vancouver and Miami next Thursday).

Then it’s Christmas/New Year’s week. I haven’t really figured out what, if anything, I’ll be writing during that week. If you have any suggestions, let me know.

Ok, in we go:

FC Cincinnati

2025 finish: 2nd in the Shield table on 65 points. Remember that 2-1 loss to D.C. in June? I tweeted something like “if Cincy miss out on the Shield by a point or two, this is the game they’ll point to.” Yup.

Biggest question: Can they get their defensive shape and structure right?

Cincy’s braintrust going into this offseason with one overarching task: they’ve got to rediscover the team’s defensive shape, and then be ready to implement it from Day 1 of preseason. That’s the trick, the whole damn puzzle. And throughout 2025, the Garys looked like a team that had all the pieces scattered across the table but hadn’t found the edges.

Part of that is the spine that once made them elite is no longer so sturdy. Too often they found themselves in emergency defense after getting stretched vertically, or simply couldn’t control the tempo long enough to prevent games from turning into transition track meets.2

So, first: rebuild the defensive structure with a clearer understanding of who steps, who holds, and how the attacking trio can work to limit third-line passes into the half-spaces. Second: establish some real pitch control through possession. I’m not asking for tiki-taka, just enough sustained, intentional possession to dictate where the game is played and when.

Top winter priority: Re-sign Brenner. Somehow.

I’m going to drop in a paragraph and change from Tommy Scoops’ running contract decision tracker from the Athletic:

It’s an uphill battle for Brenner, in particular, as the club won’t have a DP spot to use for him.

Brenner was previously a DP for Cincy before being transferred to Udinese for a $10 million fee. Any new contract, plus adding in transfer fee impact on salary cap hit, will make it difficult to keep Brenner on a non-DP deal.

This is tough. I don’t think Brenner is great individually – there are non-DP No. 9s who are better goalscorers than he is – but he had great chemistry with Evander, which is something the actual DP No. 9 on the roster, Kévin Denkey, can’t claim.3 And beyond the chemistry thing, Brenner is a very, very good defensive striker, which is extremely necessary given that Denkey isn’t (or, at least, he wasn’t last year), and Evander mostly chooses not to be a defensive presence at all as a No. 10.

Might they have to choose between Denkey and Evander at some point? Honestly… yeah. But bringing Brenner back (sorry for the alliteration; it was unintentional) next year can maybe push the urgency of that potential decision down the road a window or two, while increasing the chances of raising the level on both sides of the ball.

I just have no idea how they do it.

State of the roster: Really, really good! This team won a ton of games last year based on raw talent, and thus as one would suspect, they’ve got a very deep and talented roster.

It could get better, of course – they still don’t really develop young domestic products, or haven’t, anyway, outside of Roman Celentano. That means they have less room for error on their TAM signings and U-22s, but the good news is they mostly hit on those.

• 2026 TAM players: Bucha, Hadebe, Miazga, Nwobodo, Orellano
• 2026 U-22 players: Echenique, Flores, Gidi
• 2026 DPs: Denkey, Evander, Robinson

Where the XI stands now: In almost the same spot where they left it last year.

To be clear, I don’t think that’s a bad thing: “Lots of talent with one more year of chemistry and continuity under the belt” is a better roster-building plan than most teams, be they in MLS or elsewhere, usually has.

But it’s not a slam dunk, either.

3-4-1-2

• GK: Celentano
• LCB: Hadebe
• CB: Miazga
• RCB: Robinson
• LWB: Orellano
• DM: Nwobodo
• CM: Bucha
• RWB: Echenique
• AM: Evander
• FW: Denkey
• FW: ???

Things to know:

• “Fix the spine” might be as simple as “get Matt Miazga back to 100%.” I don’t think it is, mind you – I think there were some real issues defending from the front that made the midfield and backline look worse than they are – but it’s undeniable that they’ve been a worse team against the ball since Miazga’s injury in mid-2024.
• In case you missed it, Miles Robinson will now be their third DP.
• I’m kind of shocked that they exercised Teenage Hadebe’s contract option.
• They’ve already sold Álvaro Barreal and teams are now calling about Dado Valenzuela. For a club that had virtually no GAM last year, those moves could be a godsend.

NYCFC

2025 finish: 5th in the East on 56 points, followed by a run to the East finals. Imagine if they’d made a big signing or two last winter instead of waiting for the summer!

Biggest question: Will they make big signings in the spring instead of waiting til the summer?

I haven’t opined on the hiring of new CSO Todd Dunivant, so let me do that here: Dunivant has a long history – almost a decade – of building winning clubs in the lower divisions, first with the SF Deltas (RIP) in the old NASL (also RIP), then, since 2018, with Sacramento Republic of the USL-Championship. My understanding is that he rarely had the biggest budgets in the league, or anything close, but always put together competitive rosters, and thus, competitive teams.4

Now, there’s not a ton of USL-to-MLS front office data points to use in order to shape our expectations. However, what I’d imagine is the case here is the CFG shot-callers who hired Dunivant are hoping that he can use his knowledge of the entire soccer pyramid here to fill out the NYCFC roster with good players on good deals up and down the whole damn thing.

That means doing stuff like, for example, not letting Justin Haak get to free agency or, for example, not letting Taylor Calheira (who is quite possibly the next guy in the Brian White/Tani Oluwaseyi/Danny Musovski pipeline) walk at the end of one highly productive and encouraging Next Pro season. Managing the roster with a clear understanding of the value of those guys is how you always keep the floor high, and yadda yadda yadda if you’ve read this series at all you know I’ve said this shit a million times.

Don’t be dogmatic about good players! Be agnostic! They can come from anywhere, and when they do, you’ve got to keep them!

Top winter priority: Get a premium roster slot buyout so they can make a big signing in the spring instead of waiting til the summer.

Ok, back to the point: NYCFC were a much better team last year once they pulled the trigger and got Nicolás Fernández Mercau in mid-season as a DP playmaker/winger/false 9. He didn’t put up incredible numbers but he enhanced basically everything this team did, while also adding a true through-ball artist to the mix.

They need another guy at that level if they’re going to contend for real.

The issue is they’ve maxed out their premium roster slots, even though two guys (young DP winger Talles Magno and U-22 forward Jovan Mijatović)5 are out on perma-loans.

One of those guys has got to come off the books, man. And soon. This is obviously not a Dunivant thing – buyouts or sales are above the paygrade of any CSO; they can make the case and put the deal in place, but it’s ownership’s job to sign off.

Will they?

State of the roster: Very good at the top because they’ve done so well developing players from the academy and hitting on a few draft picks, as well as one or two pretty smart trades. Add in Pascal Jansen’s developmental ability and you’ve built a pretty virtuous cycle.

But there are definitely some crises to manage: Haak’s got 2/3s of the league calling him as I write this, and Seymour Reid is, I guess, the projected starter at the 9, and who knows when Keaton Parks or Andres Perea will play again. Which makes central midfield very thin.

It doesn’t help that they’re getting little-to-nothing from four of their six premium roster slots.

• 2026 TAM players: Raul Gustavo, Martínez, O’Neill, Parks, Wolf
• 2026 U-22 players: J. Fernández, Mijatović, Ojeda
• 2026 DPs: Fernández Mercau, Magno, Martins

Where the XI stands now: They’re in ok shape even if they lose Haak, though if he’s gone for good the ceiling gets lower, as does the floor.

Maxi is still a question mark, and Alonso Martínez is shelved for the whole year, and is Malachi Jones ever coming back? I’m having to squint very hard to see another conference finals run in this group.

So… some questions.

4-2-3-1

• GK: Freese
• LB: O’Toole
• CB: Gustavo
• CB: Martins
• RB: Gray
• DM: O’Neill
• CM: Shore
• LW: Wolf
• AM: Fernández Mercau
• RW: ???
• FW: ???

Things to know:

• They really should just apologize to Calheira and bring him back. A platoon of him and Reid while Martínez recovers is potentially a lot of fun.
• In addition to Shore, Máximo Carrizo might be able to take some minute in midfield – though likely as a 10 rather than a No. 8. Both guys need to eat lots of protein and hit the gym this winter.
• Another name to keep an eye on: Max Murray. The big CB was one of the heroes of Vermont’s national title run in 2024, and then was one of the best CBs in Next Pro last year.

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LAFC

2025 finish: 3rd in the West on 60 points, which made them just the third team in MLS history to register back-to-back 60-point seasons.

Biggest question: Is Marc Dos Santos going to change anything?

Head coach Steve Cherundolo, who just authored one of the most successful four-year stretches of any manager in MLS history, is gone.6 Off to Europe – back to Germany, specifically – to lay his shingle somewhere there.

In his place, LAFC have hired his top assistant, Marc Dos Santos. Dos Santos is, by all accounts, a very good guy and a very good assistant. He’s logged years under some MLS legends, including Peter Vermes during the tail-end of Sporting KC’s almost dynasty, and under Bob Bradley in LAFC’s first year of existence before coming back for the past four under Cherundolo.

He is not a sure thing, though, because in between those two LAFC assistant gigs,7 he had 81 games as head coach of the Vancouver Whitecaps, and… it did not go great. The ‘Caps under Dos Santos played some of the most boring ball in the league. They finished:

• Bottom three in possession each year.
• Bottom three in chance creation each year
• Bottom three in the West in xGD each year.

While they did actually make the playoffs in Dos Santos’ final season – 2021 – that was only because the team went on a monstrous run down the stretch (7W-2L-5D) after he’d been fired and replaced by Vanni Sartini, sneaking from the bottom of the conference up into 6th place.

So yeah, I kind of get it: LAFC have a thing that works right now, and Dos Santos has the trust of Thorrington, and Thorrington wants to keep it all going. Continuity matters a lot and if Dos Santos succeeds, he certainly wouldn’t be the first coach to have a better go of it in his second big job.

But if things get ugly early (I guess this part isn’t really much of an offseason guide, is it? Sorry!) I don’t think the fans will be patient about it.

Top winter priority: Figure out how to get more creativity into the lineup.

We saw, in the second half of LAFC’s epic Western Conference semifinals loss at Vancouver, just how fearsome this team could look when they put more attackers onto the field and freaking went for it. A string-puller behind (or even alongside) Son Heung-min and Denis Bouanga? My god, man, why would you not do that?

Look, they’ve already re-signed Hugo Lloris and brought back Mathieu Choiniere on a permanent deal. They could not do a single other thing all winter long and still be in great shape – like, “60+ points for a third straight year!” shape – in 2026.

But they’ve got an open premium roster slot.

They should go for it. Win CCL, win the Shield, win MLS Cup. It’s all on the table if they’re as successful with their third DP as they’ve been with the two already on the roster.

State of the roster: Elite even if they don’t do the above, though maybe a little too thin to really compete across multiple fronts.8

Part of that was Aaron Long and Igor Jesus getting hit with season-ending injuries, while David Martínez has shown only flashes of what he’s capable of, rather than consistent production. Martínez, in fact… well, I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if they shopped him, either within the league or without (either would open up another premium roster slot).

The good news is that Thorrington is one of the league’s absolute best at managing a budget, so they’ll be carrying over $2 million GAM into next season. Depth will be added.

• 2026 TAM players: Delgado, Ebobisse, Long, Palencia, Porteous, Tillman
• 2026 U-22 players: Igor Jesus, Martínez, Smolyakov
• 2026 DPs: Bouanga, Son

Where the XI stands now: They could roll out an MLS Cup contender with the group they’ve got on hand.

I’m assuming Dos Santos will use the 4-3-3 that he preferred with Vancouver, and that worked so well at times in 2025. But this could easily flex into a 3-4-2-1 (and that is obviously a club I think this team should and will keep in the bag).

4-3-3

• GK: Lloris
• LB: Smolyakov
• CB: Segura
• CB: Porteous
• RB: Palencia
• DM: Choiniere
• CM: Delgado
• CM: Tillman
• LW: Bouanga
• FW: Son
• RW: ???

Things to know:

• Nathan Ordaz and Jeremy Ebobisse are back to add depth up top. There are a lot of teams around the league where either guy would start.
• LAFC 2 had two full internationals – center back Érick Díaz (Panama) and attacking midfielder Matthew Evans (Guatemala) – who were, by the numbers, two of the best in the league at their respective spots in Next Pro. If those guys are ready for real minutes, then any depth issues kind of disappear.
• This team crushes it in free agency every year. Fair warning.