Offseason Guides: Timbers and FC Dallas get some clarity – and a reality check

We’ll keep our twice-weekly cadence on the offseason guides this week, but note that the second set of offseason guides this week (Austin and Chicago, you’re up!) will come on Friday instead of Thursday.

Here are the post-mortems for MLSsoccer:

• Western Conference dregs
• Eastern Conference dregs
• Wild Card losers
• Round 1 Sweeps
• Round 1 three-gamers

Four more coming tomorrow, between Cincy and Philly in the East as well as LAFC and TBD in the West.

Ok, in we go:

Portland Timbers

2025 finish: 8th in the West on 44 points as they slowly but surely ran out of POWER after that first six weeks turned out to be a mirage.

Biggest question: Do they have a winning core?

Look, I will say straight-up that I think “can Phil Neville be a title-winning coach in this league?” is actually a bigger question than “can Portland get title-winning talent in this league?” And beyond that I will say “can Portland create a title-winning culture in this league?” is a bigger question1 than “can Phil Neville be a title-winning coach in this league?”

But the second of those questions isn’t going to be addressed in one offseason, and the first was already addressed by CSO Ned Grabavoy earlier this month:

“Confident in Phil, no questions whatsoever,” Grabavoy told the assembled journos in the close-season presser. “Phil is the right person to lead this team.

“With Phil and myself, we have alignment.”

So we’ve got to shift to the third question: is this an elite, winning core? Portland spent big on but got middling returns from David da Costa, Kristoffer Velde2 and Kevin Kelsy over the past year. Antony still takes up a U-22 slot, and Felipe Mora is back with his almost $1.5m cap hit. Jonathan Rodríguez is back – as of now, anyway – too, and that means all three DP slots are spoken for, and they’re locked into the 3 DP/3 U-22 roster build model, and that’s not great for a team that finished the season with zero GAM on hand.

Now, there could be a buyout, or maybe someone gets sold. But we’re stacking “ifs” and “maybes” here, and what it really looks like is that the moves they made to change the team from 2024 to 2025 are the moves that are going to define who the team is in 2026.

And it’s just pretty tough to look at that and see anything better than mid-40s points and another quick postseason exit. Especially with Neville in charge, as he seems the definition of a “high floor, low ceiling” type of manager.

Top winter priority: Rebuild the central midfield depth chart.

You could go in other directions, including central defense (it’s gonna be Finn Surman and Kamal Miller, I guess?) or figuring out the Rodríguez situation. The healthy, 2024 version of him would sure help, but is that guy in there? Would he be happy to spend another year in Portland even if he is? OK, truth be told, that’s the actual answer: “figuring out the Rodríguez situation” is the top winter priority.

Irrespective of what decisions are made there and on the backline, though, the Timbers have got to get some names into the mix deeper in central midfield, where the soon-to-be 40 Diego Chara remains irreplaceable, David Ayala has stagnated and Joao Ortiz was… ok.

That’s not enough.

State of the roster: Actually a little deeper and more flexible than in years past (outside of central midfield, anyway) because they finally have started changing that club culture, as excellently covered by the folks at Stumptown Footy:

This is meaningful progress, and would’ve stood as such even without Gage Guerra’s dramatic equalizer vs. San Diego in the second leg of Portland’s Round 1 series. The fact that Guerra did get that goal, though, kind of makes the whole thing feel more real? Or at least it makes me more hopeful that it’s real.

Still, this team’s fate is more tightly bound to their DPs, imports and top-end of their roster generally than almost anyone’s.

• 2026 TAM players: Chara, Fory, Mora, Mosquera

• 2026 U-22 players: Antony3, Ayala, Kelsy

• 2026 DPs: da Costa, Rodríguez, Velde

Where the XI stands now: Pretty full, though as I implied above, either the guys on hand have to play better4 or Grabavoy’s got to figure out how to bring in upgrades.

Improvement is possible, by the way, as John David Mosquera, Ayala, and Kelsy are all toolsy players on the right part of the age curve. Hell, same with da Costa. But the first two have gone in the wrong direction over the past 12 months, the third still doesn’t know where goals come from, and da Costa looked more like a secondary guy rather than a true, playmaking hub.

So… tough sledding.

4-2-3-1

• GK: Pantemis
• LB: Fory
• CB: Miller(???)
• CB: Surman
• RB: Mosquera
• DM: Chara
• CM: Ayala
• LW: Velde
• AM: da Costa
• RW: Antony
• FW: Kelsy(???)

Things to know:

• You can see there’s no obvious starting job for Rodríguez (unless they want to play him at center forward, which he’s done in the past, but… doubt). That’s another arrow pointing in the direction of a departure.
• It wouldn’t shock me at all if there was real interest in both Finn Surman and Mosquera this winter. Maybe Ayala, too.
• Pantemis was excellent over the first two months of the season then really, really not after that.

FC Dallas

2025 finish: 7th in the West after ending their bad marriage with Lucho Acosta. They lost just once in their final 12 regular-season games after they shipped him to Brazil! They were legit good!

Biggest question: Can they keep that same energy but add a creative hub in midfield?

The Lucho thing was simple: he’s a mercurial dude – folks around the league will happily use stronger language than that if you but ask – and was not happy in Frisco. So because he was not happy, he was not working hard on either side of the ball, which compromised Dallas’s defense, and at the same time it meant he was getting on the ball in worse spots in possession, which compromised Dallas’s attack, and so he just started forcing everything and trying to go 1v3, which…

Look, I don’t need to recount all this. Just know that it sucked in every way “man, the centerpiece player is unhappy and taking it out on everyone” can suck. It took him half a season to force his way out; Dallas were better for it.

But there’s a big gap between “Dallas were better for it” and “Dallas are title contenders,” and the ‘Caps dispensed a lesson in just how big that gap actually was. Dallas need an elite playmaker in order to close it.

They just can’t give up their identity, nor should they give up the formation5 that worked so well for them in order to fit that guy in.

So yeah, all the need is a No. 10 who creates at an elite level, fits into a 3-5-2 and willingly works really hard on both sides of the ball. Can they rent a TARDIS to grab 2013 Kevin de Bruyne?

Top winter priority: A No. 10 who creates at an elite level, fits into a 3-5-2 and willingly works really hard on both sides of the ball.

I just described the second-most expensive archetype of player in the entire world, so… it’s not going to be easy to find that guy on an MLS budget. Still, though, it can be done: Maxi Moralez, who came to MLS at age 28, is a perfect example, while we’ve seen the likes of Diego Luna and Brian Gutierrez developed into the type of player I’m talking about here via various pathways.

Dallas don’t have anyone like that coming through the academy at the moment, sadly, so they really are going to have to shop. They just need better aim than last year when Lucho was the target.

State of the roster: Packed full because they hand out so many homegrown deals. Seriously, even after a bunch of option declines and letting a bunch of free agents walk, los Toros Tejanos have 27 guys on guaranteed deals heading into next year. That’s so many!

The good news is they’ve got at least one open premium roster slot and a bunch of GAM. So they can address some high-end needs.

• 2026 TAM players: Julio, Moore, Pomykal, Uroghide

• 2026 U-22 players: Kaick, Delgado, Geovane Jesus,6 Sali

• 2026 DPs: Musa

Where the XI stands now: Mostly full, I think, though your mileage may vary on how many of these guys actually have their jobs locked down.

Personally I think they need the scalpel, not the chainsaw this winter.

• 3-4-1-2:• GK: Collodi
  • LCB: Norris
  • CB: Uroghide
  • RCB: ???
  • LWB: Kamungo
  • DM: Kaick
  • CM: Cappis
  • RWB: Moore
  • AM: New DP???
  • FW: Musa
  • FW: Farrington

Things to know:

• Academy product Michael Collodi outright won the starting job in goal, which makes Maarten Paes’s future very interesting to ponder. Orlando, for example, need a starting ‘keeper. Would it make more sense for them to make an offer for Paes – a proven MLS guy in his prime – rather than shopping overseas? I think it would.
• Logan Farrington is never going to score a ton of goals, but his pressing and field coverage is what made playing with a front two possible.
• Could there be a Godfather offer coming for Petar Musa? That’s kind of the nightmare scenario for Dallas fans, because the big Croat was incredible as a focal point over the entire second half of the season.
• I sent this to a buddy before publishing and here’s a note he sent back: “I think more could be made to denote after trading Walker Zimmerman and then signing 75 TAM CBs since they finally hit one with Uroghide.” Very fair point! Osaze Uroghide is a foundational piece who I hope is still in Dallas colors in 2035.

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