Power Rankings, 1-30 | Matchday 30
Charlotte's winning streak continues, flat-trick bullies in Philly & plenty more to complain about
I wrote some about the Quakes, who have been playing good and entertaining but utterly chaotic ball all year long, and often suffering for it. Also did some on NYCFC, who’ve been one of the best teams in the league over the past month.
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• San Jose Earthquakes respond, NYCFC's new threat & more from Matchday 30
Anyway, I am excited about the Leagues Cup on Wednesday night. I know people are cynical about that tournament, but the remaining teams took it really, really seriously, and I think we’ll get two very good games out of it.1
OK, here’s my vote for this week’s MLSsoccer.com Power Rankings:
Inter Miami: I still think this is the best team in the league, but will absolutely change my tune if they don’t beat Orlando on Wednesday.
Philadelphia Union: Murdered the Fire, as expected. They’ve now got three chances in the next three outings2 to prove they’re not just flat-track bullies.
Seattle Sounders: Huge proof of concept moment for Osaze de Rosario on Wednesday. You know my stance on this: I believe in the underlying numbers, and care way more about OdR’s 2.82 xG (in just 186 MLS minutes!) way more than the fact that he has only one goal.3
San Diego FC: Seven points from three games since the Leagues Cup, but they have not played at all well. Still, nothing but respect to them for the way they’ve built depth by playing and developing the kids.
FC Cincinnati: That was listless. Need to do better this coming week with Philly in town and massive Shield implications.
Nashville SC: Needed that one. Need to build on it with three more points against the Atlanta doormats this weekend, and then some much-needed rest.
LAFC: They’ve mostly looked good the past three games, just snakebit in front of net. If they keep playing like this, the wins will come.
Minnesota United: RSL aren’t in great form right now but a 3-1 in Utah is an excellent result, especially as it mostly came without Tani.4
I love this bit, by the way:Orlando City: Just a total capitulation. Maybe it doesn’t mean anything – that was a heavily rotated lineup – but probably not the vibes you want to be bringing into a semifinal derby.
Renaissance Sportive de Charlotte: Seven straight! Fun fact: they’ve lost the xG battle in four of the seven outings, including this weekend. Which is to say that maybe the results are a little bit better than the performances right now.
NYCFC: Unbeaten in five and three of those wins (including this weekend’s) have been really, really impressive.
Vancouver Whitecaps: Looked promising going forward and vulnerable defensively, which makes sense when you look at the surgery they’ve had to do on the roster.
Columbus Crew: Gassed, and the body language was bad. I don’t think anybody needs the upcoming international break more.
Portland Timbers: Not perfect, but certainly promising (even if one win in seven is a brutal stretch).5
Chicago Fire: Soft.
RBNY: Sloppy.
San Jose Earthquakes: Showed some solidity and actual mental fortitude for once, and have now won two of three after a prolonged dry spell.6
Austin FC: Since the end of March they are 5W-7L-8D with a -8 goal differential. Just not a very good team, though still probably good enough to hang onto the last spot.7
Colorado Rapids: Chasing shadows the whole game. Didn’t look much like a playoff team in this one.
Real Salt Lake: Absolute must-win when they host Sporting KC in a few weeks. But in all honesty, given how hard the rest of the schedule is I think they’re already cooked.
LA Galaxy: I’d put more stock in this win – and Greg Vanney’s glowing praise for the reserves who powered it – if the Galaxy overall and Vanney in particular had a better history of incorporating those guys into the first team and giving them high-leverage minutes. That’s what we’ve seen from most of the successful sides in the league.8
FC Dallas: I like that they’re headed back in the direction of being player development-oriented.
Toronto FC: Fact that Ola Brynhildsen is getting minutes over DeAndre Kerr and Jules-Anthony Vilsaint is unconscionable. Congrats on the meaningless road point.
New England Revolution: Good win. This is not a bad roster.
Montreal Impact: Unbeaten in four! A new DP No. 10 on the way! Dante Sealy coming into his own! I’m having fun watching this team!
Houston Dynamo: Feels like that’s that. I’m disappointed because I’ve really liked watching them play at times, and in mid-spring it felt like they were putting it together. But that was a mirage.
St. Louis City: They’re now an org in flux with the Lutz Pfannenstiel era having come to an end.9
Atlanta United: Luke Brennan is fun and good, and should continue to start.
Sporting KC: By the underlying numbers this is actually the worst team in the league this year, by a mile.
D.C. United: Still, I can’t bring myself to scrape D.C. off the bottom. Even after a decent result on the weekend.
I do not believe either Miami nor LA are about to get blown out again. ↩
All of them away games, including the US Open Cup semis at Nashville. ↩
I am old enough to remember Danny Musovski’s dry spell to start the season. Some Sounders fans clearly are not. ↩
My Transfer Window grades are coming out tomorrow, and the tl;dr is that the Loons are probably in a worse spot short-term, but a better spot long-term because of this window. And that I still believe their game model limits their upside. ↩
To be clear: I like the Timbers’ window. I just doubt that their additions will be enough to catapult them into the ranks of true contenders. ↩
If you’re looking for the next Danny Musovski, it’s Preston Judd. He started this weekend, and should start next weekend, too. ↩
Remember this year’s Austin team when someone says, next year about a team getting off to a slow start, that the results don’t matter, and there’s plenty of time to turn it around.
Historically, about 80% of the teams who are above the line after eight games stay above the line. ↩
Which is to say that I don’t think he’ll do the Philly or San Diego or Seattle or LAFC or Vancouver player-development-and-squad-rotation thing that keeps those teams fresh enough to compete across multiple competitions.
Please prove me wrong, Greg. ↩
Club president and GM Diego Gigliani will presumably be making the next hire, and he’s got City Football Group roots. If he hires a new CSO who’s also got CFG DNA, and a new coach who has CFG DNA, that’d mark a pretty precipitous shift from the more attritional game model that St. Louis have mostly played since their inception.
I don’t think that would be a bad thing, to be clear. Nor, however, is it a guarantee of success. ↩
