Ranking all 30 MLS teams by tier for 2026

As is now tradition, my final piece of season preview coverage starts with a tip of the cap to the great Zach Lowe for the inspiration, courtesy of his Annual Tiers of the NBA opus.

What follows are not hard-and-fast Power Rankings, per se, but rather something a little looser in terms of talent level, cohesion, chemistry and all the et ceteras that make teams tick (or not).

These teams are mostly in the order I think they'll finish, but what really matters is the tier designation.

Tier 1: The Favorites

These are the teams that I expect to win some sort of trophy this year, be it Concacaf Champions Cup, Leagues Cup, MLS Cup, US Open Cup or the Supporters’ Shield – or, for Vancouver, a fifth-straight Canadian Championship.

If these three don't add something to the cabinet this year, heads will roll.

Inter Miami

I mean, I don't even know what to add to what's already been said by me here, on Soccerwise and anywhere else I've either held a pen or a microphone this past month.

The Herons are stacked. They have the best player in the history of the game, and now instead of being surrounded by a few of his oldest friends, he's surrounded by a bunch of the league's best young players. He's still got veterans like Rodrigo De Paul and Sergio Reguilón around him, though, and they went out and made one of the biggest purchases of the winter when they bought Germán Berterame to be their third DP.

Even more important were the free agency signing of Dayne St. Clair in goal (gaping wound of a spot most of last year has now become a strength) and Micael to play left center back. Those are dudes who were on my Best XI ballot within the past couple of years.

And one more thing: Javier Mascherano is clearly a very good coach.

My Worry: There are two things that can happen here:

1. Messi gets old but still plays every single minute and it just stops working.
2. Nobody can replicate the progressive passing of Sergio Busquets and the whole thing becomes an exercise in frustration. I'm wishcasting David Ayala into that role but nothing from his time in MLS says he can be consistently good at that kind of orchestration.

This team still has enough juice to end up on 65 points anyway.

4-2-3-1: St. Clair; Reguilón, Micael, Falcon, Fray; Ayala, De Paul; Silvetti, Messi, Allende; Berterame

LAFC

This team has been schizophrenic the past couple of years, alternating between being a very good 4-3-3 possession team and a pure 5-2-3 transition set-up. And look, you can't really knock it: they became just the third team in MLS history to go for 60+ points in back-to-back years.

Most of the great stuff that happened for them down the stretch last year after Son Heung-min's arrival? That came out of the 5-2-3. Most of the great stuff they did in battering an excellent 'Caps team in the second half of last year's West final? That came after they switched back to the 4-3-3 for basically the first time since Son had arrived, and my god it was as relentless a 75 minutes of soccer as I think I've ever seen in this league

Everything they've done subsequently, up to and including bringing in Stephen Eustáquio, has indicated that they're going to commit to the 4-3-3 this year.

I think it's the right call.

My Worry: A lot of my confidence comes from a belief that Eustáquio will adjust quickly. If he doesn't, then things get complicated.

The other thing... how certain are we that Denis Bouanga is 100% happy? He's like the 19th-highest-paid player in the league, which is less than he deserves. Not to mention the transfer interest from the likes of Miami and some of the Brazilian giants.

It's a lot for new head coach Marc Dos Santos to handle from Day 1.

4-3-3: Lloris; Hollingshead, Segura, Porteous, Palencia; Delgado, Eustáquio, Tillman; Bouanga, Son, Ordaz

Vancouver Whitecaps

The 'Caps put together one of the best seasons in MLS history, racking up a club-record points total and making it to the final of every competition they played in while posting killer underlyings, and doing all of that in spite of an unholy plague of injuries.

Now they're bringing mostly the same team back, but with more proven depth (all those injuries provided ample opportunities for down-roster guys to step up) as well as a full year of Thomas Müller.

I'm going to borrow a graph from Joe Lowery's excellent season-preview in Backheeled:

Vancouver’s ceiling is the sky, folks. They have truly elite MLS players in every line of the field, quality starting players in every position, and useful depth pieces behind all of those starters (hello, Ralph Priso, who is apparently a top-tier center back now?).

Cant' say it better than that.

My Worry: Müller is old, Brian White is injury-prone and Ryan Gauld is already injured. They went HAM trying to replace Ali Ahmed in the transfer market, and I think there's a lot of reason to trust them there, but until we see Ahmed's contributions replicated – and he was arguably the team's best attacker in the playoffs, Müller included – we don't know.

Plus there's the looming "are they gonna move?" thing. Maybe that galvanizes them... or maybe they play the whole season under a gray cloud.

Overall, though, the vibes can't possibly be as across-the-board excellent as they were last year, right? Can they?

4-2-3-1: Takaoka; Adekugbe, Priso, Blackmon, Ocampo; Cubas, Berhalter; Cabrera, Müller, Sabbi; White

Tier 2: Real Contenders

These are the teams that have the pieces and the foundation to go out there and win something. If they do so, nobody should be surprised by it. If they don’t manage to win, nobody will be too shocked, though, as there's a real gap between this group and the top three.

Seattle Sounders

Maybe not that much of a gap with the Sounders, though? There was a huge chunk of time – three months – during which Seattle were the best team in the league. Not Vancouver (though to be fair Seattle's rise coincided with the 'Caps' post-CCL doldrums), not LAFC and not even Miami. Nor was it Philly.

It was the Sounders. They summited "Player Development Mountain" once and seemingly for all by, post-Club World Cup, mixing-and-matching veterans with guys who'd come through their academy or through Tacoma or both. Brian Schmetzer figured out the right spots for everyone and built a ruthless and relentless endline pullback machine.

Even after an offseason sell-off of guys like Danny Leyva, Reed Baker-Whiting and most importantly Obed Vargas, there is both depth and quality here, along with both youthful vigor and veteran knowhow.

Plus I expect the central defense to be better than they were in 2025. They were good in big games (until the playoffs, anyway), but weirdly struggled at times. If they're back to their 2024 form and the attack stays near 2025 levels... good god.

My Worry: The attack only really hit those levels when Pedro de la Vega was out there on the left wing, and he's made of glass (and is currently hurt). The other natural left winger with 1v1 skills is Georgi Minoungou, and it looks like he's maybe about to be sold to Hammarby of the Swedish top flight.

The damage those guys do in isolation tilts entire defenses towards their side of the field, and without that tilt, Seattle are merely "very good."

One other note: Cristian Roldan is carrying a knock. It's just a minor one, but there's only one guy on this team that's irreplaceable, and it's him.

4-2-3-1: Thomas; Nouhou, Ragen, Andrade, A. Roldan; C. Roldan, Dotson; Ferreira, Rusnák, Morris; De Rosario

Nashville SC

For years and years we've been saying that Nashville needed to go out and get a third heat in attack. This offseason they finally did it, when they used the DP slot opened by Walker Zimmerman's departure to go out and sign Cristian Espinoza as a free agent.

I'll admit that when I pictured the type of attacker who'd fit Nashville best it was always a goalscoring winger/wide midfielder rather than a playmaking wide midfielder, but you don't have to be a brain genius to see how Espinoza – who will stay wide on the right and dime up the most accurate crosses and pullbacks in the league – fits with/complements/enhances the skillsets of the holdovers, Hany Mukhtar and Sam Surridge. It's kind of perfect, right?

Meanwhile the center back questions have been answered because of how well Jeison Palacios played in Zimmerman's absence last year, as well as the arrival of Maxwell Woledzi (rave reviews in preseason).

My Worry: The central midfield's a little vanilla compared to the rest of the teams in the top two tiers. They're not bad, mind you, but nobody would call it a strength. And there's still no reliable third goalscorer.

CSO Mike Jacobs did do an excellent job in getting Reed Baker-Whiting just this week, which provides some breathing room at both fullback slots. A huge concern for me was "what happens if Daniel Lovitz or Andy Najar get hurt?" and now that's less of one, but it is, still, a concern.

4-4-1-1: Schwake; Lovitz, Woledzi, Palacios, Najar; Muyl, Yazbek, Tagseth, Espinoza; Mukhtar; Surridge

FC Cincinnati

You just put it down on paper and it looks overwhelming. In terms of raw talent, 1-through-15, Cincy are behind only Miami, and are arguably ahead of everyone else (other than maybe LAFC).

They should have Obinna Nwobodo and Matt Miazga both back and healthy from the whistle this year, which hopefully means a return to the defensively suffocating group of 2023 and the first half of 2024. They've also seemingly upgraded the wingbacks, and a full year of Evander and Kévin Denkey together should, in theory, mean more advanced chemistry than what the two flashed in 2025.

They've also added meaningful depth via use of the U-22 initiative and some smart (IMO) veteran signings.

My Worry: It all looked great on paper last year, too. And to be fair, they did come within a whisker of winning the Supporters' Shield.

But the underlyings (and the eye-test) said all year long that this was a bad team between the boxes, and that truth came home to roost in the playoffs. Cincy got gappy, and Cincy got cooked. There was no connection between Evander and Denkey, and there was no chemistry along the backline.

What if this is unsolveable? The advanced data hates this Cincy team, gang – flashing giant, red warning signs right now. And the data is usually right.

I'm putting them here anyway but man, I hate going against math.

3-4-1-2: Celentano; Hadebe, Miazga, Robinson; Ramírez, Bucha, Nwobodo, Echenique; Evander; Denkey, Jabbari

San Diego FC

Man I just love the confidence coursing through this entire org. Their whole raison d'être seems to be to prove two things:

1. Being brave with the ball is better than being cowards, and
2. A great coach and culture can develop great players on a much faster curve than folks are usually willing to credit.

These two things speak directly to my soul. San Diego – I'm going to give up the ghost on calling them los Niños, which proved to be not fetch – were one of the three most beautiful attacking teams to watch last year, and the most distinct.

They set a record for expansion team points, made a credible run to the West final, and have now opened the season with a relatively convincing two-leg win over UNAM Pumas in the CCL.

Mikey Varas is awesome. Tyler Heaps is awesome. Anders Dreyer and Jeppe Tverskov are awesome. The kids – especially Manu Duah – are better than alright.

My Worry: Every time I do a Tiers column I put it in the group chat and ask for feedback, and the feedback this year (from one who will remain nameless) was to actually move San Diego down to the third tier:

You said you think Dreyer will regress (agree) and they didn’t really add much. And when it came down to it last year they didn’t have the horses to beat real contenders.

I'm not actually going to move them down, but... yeah. This team's got some great pieces, a great coach, and a great culture. And probably don't have enough high-end, match-winning talent to go out there and bring home a trophy.

Maybe that changes later this window, or in the summer. If it doesn't, this is as high as I can take them.

4-3-3: dos Santos; Bombino, Duah, McVey, Eisner; Valakari, Tverskov, Godoy; Pellegrino, Ingvartsen, Dreyer

NYCFC

It was a banner year for new coaches in MLS last year. Varas in San Diego and Mascherano in Miami, and Jesper Sørensen (who I somehow didn't even mention in the 'Caps blurb) all produced A++ seasons.

Pascal Jansen wasn't quite at that level, but he came damn close, punctuating a good regular-season – one that did as much for clarifying the roster overall as it did for squeezing more of the top-end talent – with an outstanding playoff performance.

Because of that clarity, along with a few key additions (Nicolás Fernández Mercau being the big one), a willingness to push academy prospects into bigger roles, and an eye for pushing his veterans to new spots (Kevin O'Toole, d-mid), the Pigeons have real depth and flexibility.

My Worry: They don't have a proven center forward* or the same types of match-winners as the other teams in the top two tiers. Fernández is really good, but he's not Dreyer or Evander, let alone Son or Müller or (lol) Messi.

(*) Right now it looks like Talles Magno at the 9, which... oof.

And look, man, Raul Gustavo was adequate last year. No better than that. And they'll need better than that if they're going to make up for the departure of Justin Haak.

4-2-3-1: Freese; O’Toole, Gustavo, Martins, Gray; Parks, O'Neill; Wolf, Moralez, Fernández Mercau; Magno

Tier 3: Probably Good, But Not Good Enough

I am reasonably confident that these are good soccer teams, and that none are a real threat to win anything substantial.

Philadelphia Union

There aren't a lot of teams that go into full overhaul mode immediately after winning the Shield, but the Union are built different (get it? get it???). And look, at the very least we know that'll stave off any kind of complacency that can tend to creep into veteran teams who get so close to the mountaintop.

The other thing that'll happen because Bradley Carnell will demand it is that this team will run, and they will press, and they will make bad teams look like extraordinarily bad teams. They will be a points accumulation machine against the bottom half of the table, just as they were last year, and they will be a tough out for anyone in the top half of the table, just as they were last year.

It's winning soccer.

My Worry: Just not in big games. Sorry.

I can feel the boiling rage coming out of the Union fanbase, but simply put: this team benefitted from playing a limited schedule last year (~20 fewer games than the likes of Miami and Vancouver), which let them focus on the Shield. Which they won by a single point. They earned and deserved it!

This year, after parting ways with two of their top-three goal scorers, and selling their best chance creator (and not replacing him), and the best center back in club history, they will have a much more congested schedule and much less-proven options in lots of key spots.

The floor is high; they're going to be an ok team. They are not going to add to their trophy case.

4-2-2-2: Blake; Harriel, Makhanya, Larsen, Westfield; Jean-Jacques, Lukic; Iloski, Vassilev; Damiani, Alladoh

Columbus Crew

So let me run down the things I like:

• A full, mostly healthy year from Wessam Abou Ali.
• Dániel Gazdag getting (mostly) un-cursed by the soccer gods, maybe?
• Rudy Camacho back, which means Sean Zawadzki in central midfield.
• More Diego Rossi.
• New head coach Henrik Rydström's whole vibe.

It's that last one that probably means the most to me (or is at least tied with a full year of Abou Ali), because I am a big believer in Wilfried Nancy's system, and it sure seems that Rydström's here to iterate on Nancy's system rather than tear it down and replace it.

That strikes me as the right move to make.

My Worry: What if Rydström's not the guy? What if there's just no replacing Darlington Nagbe, even with André Gomes potentially on the way? What if there's just no defending in the box? What if Gazdag really is cursed?

I really want to believe, because this Crew team has given me so much joy over the past three seasons. But something feels off to me.

3-4-2-1: Schulte; Amundsen, Zawadzki, Moreira; Arfsten, Chambost, Gomes(???), Farsi; Rossi, Gazdag; Abou Ali

Chicago Fire

I was buying what the Fire were selling heading into last year, and I was right to do so: they topped 50 points, won a knock-out game and made it to the playoffs proper for the first time since 2017.

I just thought they'd do it on defensive structure. Instead they did it on chaotic attacking output.

So this offseason they added a veteran, organizing central midfielder in Anton Salétros and a young, high-upside center back in Mbekezeli Mbokazi. One guy tasked with stopping chaos before it starts, and the other who can snuff it out the few times it crops up anyway.

The Fire should be a much better defensive side this year.

My Worry: I don't think they'll be as good in attack. Brian Gutiérrez was really freaking good, man, and he's now in Guadalajara, while André Franco likely won't be healthy until mid-season, and Philip Zinckernagel's not going to overperform to that degree again. Robin Lod's in town, but Lod's a ball-mover and box-arriver, not a chance creator.

No true playmaker in midfield + likely regression in goal output from the wings isn't a "we're ready to jump into the title race" type of trendline.

4-3-3: Brady; Gutman, Elliott, Mbokazi, Barroso; Salétros, D'Avilla, Lod; Bamba, Cuypers, Zinckernagel

Charlotte FC

The theory of case is, with Pep Biel back healthy and playing as a No. 10, and Wilfried Zaha acclimatized, and Idan Toklomati a proven commodity, and the deep-lying central midfield and center backs rock solid in front of one of the league's best 'keepers, and an uncomplicated, risk-averse style, that the Crown one of the league's surest-bet high-floor teams.

And I think that's correct. It's unlikely that Charlotte will be anything worse than "pretty good."

My Worry: It's also unlikely that they'll win a trophy of any sort. They've played six playoff games and scored twice, which speaks to the risk-averse game model. On top of that, most of their key players – too many of them, really – are on the downslope.

Plus there is the glaring, Adilson Malanda-sized hole in the backline. Andrew Privett might actually be a better soccer player than Malanda coming off the backline and playing on the front foot, but in terms of box dominance – which Charlotte need a ton of – Malanda clears.

The floor won't drop out entirely but it feels like the odds are against them matching last year's points total.

4-2-3-1: Kahlina; Toffolo, Ream, Privett, Byrne; De la Torre, Westwood; Zaha, Biel, Vargas; Toklomati

LA Galaxy

The Galaxy were a world-historical disaster the first half of the year and we all had fun with that, didn't we? Yes, yes we did.

They were really pretty good from June 1 onwards, though, picking up points at a playoff-caliber clip and playing their way into the CCC via a third-place finish in the Leagues Cup. That wasn't a mistake: they played good ball.

The bummer, of course, is that they won't get to follow that up by welcoming back Riqui Puig and having him turn "good ball" into "breathtaking, often great ball." He is, sadly, out for a second straight year rehabbing the torn ACL that has become one of my least-favorite injuries in league history.

But CSO Will Kuntz did his usual bang-up job of acquiring talent all winter, particularly with the Justin Haak signing and Jakob Glesnes GAM trade, but also with smart, relatively under-the-radar stuff like getting Erik Thommy off waivers (or whatever; there's too many player acquisition devices) and Joao Klauss for a small-ish transfer fee.

Everything about them seems rock-solid.

My Worry: Nothing about them seems very high-ceiling unless Marco Reus is about to turn back the clock and find 3000 minutes, which I think is, uh, unlikely.

On top of that... look, man, I love Haak as a ball-playing center back, and I like him as a d-mid, and right now it looks like he's playing d-mid alongside another d-mid in Edwin Cerrillo. It's not a recipe for a dynamic midfield or attack.

It's going to be a lot on the shoulders of the trio of DP attackers, and those guys are very good.

I'm not really sure they're more than that, though.

4-2-3-1: Mićović; Nelson, Garces, Glesnes, Yamane; Haak, Cerrillo; Paintsil, Reus, Pec; Klauss

FC Dallas

Good on Eric Quill for figuring out the recipe for this team down the stretch last year: sit deep, absorb, counter. Everybody runs, everybody tackles, everybody runs again.

And sometimes, in between all that, Petar Musa makes magic and Michael Collodi stands on his head.

My Worry: Uhh, they were supposed to add to that this winter? I'm reasonably convinced Collodi is a stud, and I'm all-in on that backline (which is more dimensional with the ball than you'd think from a low-block 5-3-2, which I'll be nice and call a 3-5-2 below), and I love the front 2 and the wingbacks.

But the midfield is... functional at best. There's nobody who really stirs the drink, and there's certainly nobody who cracks open opposing backlines. It's all three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust stuff.

That only gets you so far. Even with Joaquín Valiente in town... go get that DP 10, dammit.

3-5-2: Collodi; Norris, Ughoghide, Moore; Kamungo, Kaick, Ramiro, Johansson; Valiente; Musa, Farrington

Tier 4: I Need to See Before I Believe

These are teams where... look, I don't really expect them to be good, but you could tell me that, two months from now, we all think they're good, and I can come up with a plausible path for how they got there.

But I don't believe they're going to get there right now. So I need to see it happen.

Minnesota United

I think the Loons will be more watchable this year. I like Joaquín Pereyra a lot, and I think a healthy Kelvin Yeboah can be a very good No. 9 in this league. Plus there are a ton of other real soccer players on this roster, and new head coach Cam Knowles did good work with the Next Pro affiliate a couple years back.

They have defenders who can actually play, and they have midfielders who can do the same. I love the low-cost flyer they took on Tomás Chancalay, and I am amused by the low-cost flyer they took on James Rodríguez.

My Worry: Their best players last year with Dayne St. Clair and Tani Oluwaseyi, and they're both gone. Robin Lod was really good, too, as was Joseph Rosales. Gone and gone.

The guys they brought in to replace them are questionable to varying degrees and for varying reasons.

Now, when the bad times hit, a lot of fans will say "we need to go back to HaramBall." But I will point out that players don't want to play like that and we saw evidence of it down the stretch last year. I'm not saying there'd be a locker room mutiny, but you can tell the difference between a team giving 98% and one giving 83%, and and I can tell, and their opponents sure as shit can tell, too.

So there needs to be an evolution in the game model. But evolutions are tough, and there are going to be choppy waters ahead.

3-4-2-1: Callender; Romero, Boxall, Harvey; Markanich, Trapp, Triantis, Holongwane; Pereyra, Chancalay; Yeboah

New England Revolution

Well, the last two teams that had him got themselves a nice post-Caleb Porter bounce. Portland in 2018 made MLS Cup a year after parting ways with Porter, and the Crew won it in 2023 after having missed the playoffs the prior two seasons.

The big reason is not tactical: it's that the vibes will improve.

Vibes are wildly important even though there's no known way of measuring them (I'm still working on my xDAWG model). You just know it when you see it, and the Revs had bad vibes this year.

Beyond that, there's the shift to the 4-2-3-1, a move which I mostly like (even if I'm concerned about both fullbacks getting caught upfield), and a good addition in central midfield with Brooklyn Raines, and no signs of slowing down just yet from Carles Gil. Plus... I'm maybe out over my skis here, but I kind of suspect a bounce-back season is in store for Matt Turner now that he's back playing every week.

I don't think any of this will be fancy, but I do think it'll be pretty good.

My Worry: Both Peyton Miller and Ilay Feingold were attacking weapons last year while playing as wingbacks in a 3-4-1-2. That job's a lot more linear than that of an overlapping fullback in a 4-2-3-1, which requires more reading of timing and ability to play on the inside. It's possible both regress, or even become net negatives.

The center backs are good in theory. Turner is good in theory. The central midfield combo works in theory. The wingers provide goal danger in theory. Marko Mitrović is the next Mikey Varas or B.J. Callaghan in theory.

What I'm saying is that the Revs were bad last year, man. And there's a chance – probably a good chance – it wasn't all the coach's fault.

4-2-3-1: Turner; Miller, Fofana, Ceballos, Feingold; Raines, Polster; Langoni, Gil, Yow; Campana

San Jose Earthquakes

I had to talk myself out of moving them up a tier. The argument – which you've definitely heard before if you've consumed any season preview content – is that the Quakes were much, much better than their boxscore numbers/points total last year. They were just undone in large part by poor goalkeeping, and further upfield by a sloppy, gappy defensive structure that largely came down to a complete lack of defensive contribution from the attack.

I just kind of suspect it'll get better this year because:

1. Timo Werner up top is one of the best defensive forwards of the past decade.
2. Bruce Arena is good at making teams better year over year.
3. "Regression to the mean" also works in reverse – it's not just the Austins or St. Louises of the world outkicking their coverage for a season and then coming back down to earth, it's also about teams that underperform their underlyings eventually hitting their marks.

Last year, those marks said they were the 5th-best team in the West. That was too much even for me, but given the arrival of Werner, the expected improvement curve of a mostly young roster (I have all the Nikos Tsakiris, Reid Roberts and Max Floriani stock, and own the last house on Noel Buck Island), and some positive regression... look, man, the Quakes should get a home playoff game this year for the first time in forever.

My Worry: Cristian Espinoza, Chicho Arango and Josef Martínez represented like 70% of the San Jose's scoring, and they're all gone. Daniel's bad might not have been an outlier, and Werner hasn't been a consistent goalscorer since before Covid. His partner up top is likely to be Preston Judd (at least until San Jose get another DP forward in), and while Judd could be the next Danny Musovski, it's more likely he's just a useful third forward/super-sub.

Arena's track-record with youth development is actually really good – much better than he's given credit for in the discourse – but man, a lot is riding on Tsakiris, Reid and Floriani in particular. Maybe Beau Leroux, too?

As Trevor Wojcik said in his excellent Quakes preview for American Soccer Analysis, you can stack up a lot of reasons to be hopeful about this year's Quakes. But most likely "we’ll wake up tomorrow, the alarm clock playing “I Got You Babe”, while the DJ welcomes us to another February 2nd. Time to hit that snooze button."

4-4-2 diamond: Daniel; Jones, Roberts, Romney, Kikanovic; Buck, Vieira, Tsakiris, Leroux; Judd, Werner

Orlando City

Orlando's 2025 was in large part defined by Oscar Pareja's decision to shift the formation in a way that highlighted Alex Freeman's attacking strengths.

Freeman, of course, is now gone – sold this winter to La Liga's Villarreal. And it sure looked like his departure (and the departure of his backup, Dagur Dan Þórhallsson, who I quite like as an attacking right back) was going to necessitate a full system overhaul.

But then they went out this week and got Griffin Dorsey, who is as close to a like-for-like Freeman replacement as you can get on short notice. He's not as good, but he is, still, good. A winning player who will get forward tirelessly and has perfect "Florida Man" energy.

Most of the rest of the pieces are still in place, and while they didn't blow it out of the water this winter by bringing in a global superstar, they did go out and get Brazilian youth national team guys for every line – a center back, a d-mid and a winger.

Let's see what Papi can cook up with the kids.

My Worry: They almost managed to massively upgrade in goal until Carlos Coronel left them at the altar, and that now projects to be a weak spot yet again. They struggled at d-mid last year without César Araújo, and he's gone for good. Will any of his three replacements fill that void?

Duncan McGuire is getting his best and likely last chance to win the starting No. 9 job, and truthfully he hasn't looked like the same guy since his rookie year, while Robin Jansson has hit his mid-30s, has picked up an injury, and apparently the backline's been a disaster in the preseason.

I do think Pareja will figure this all out and get this team to the playoffs (that's just what he does), but I'd bet it's going to be a rough start.

4-2-3-1: Crepeau; Marín, Jansson, Iago, Dorsey; Atuesta, Cartagena; Angulo, Ojeda, Pašalić; Mcguire

Austin FC

Austin were an ok team last year, and got better at a few important spots this winter. Facu Torres will help. So will Jayden Nelson and Joseph Rosales, and I wouldn't be entirely shocked if Jon Bell ended up starting (though he really is much more suited for an adventurous back three than the staid and stolid central defensive pairing head coach Nico Estévez prefers).

Their two best young players last year, Owen Wolff and Danny Pereira, both improved. Brad Stuver is still around, and Brandon Vazquez should be back.

About Stuver... let's hope his slump over the final third of the season was just a slump, and not the start of a longer downward trend. I'm banking on the former.

Estévez coaches defensive structure first, last and always. Combine that with one of the league's best shot-stoppers, and you've got a high floor.

My Worry: The No. 1 thing they needed to address was a lack of chance creation, and I don't think swapping out Osman Bukari for Torres does it. Neither does adding Nelson on the left wing while presumably dropping Wolff back a line into central midfield.

You can see that this team spent most of the year under water, and finished with an xGD of -7.8, which almost exactly matched their actual goal differential.

By the end of the season, when everybody's locked in and the best teams are really clicking, "defense first!" team always get solved. Right now it feels like the best they can hope for is a repeat of last year's season.

Should I mention CSO Rodo Borrell spent the winter desperately trying to unload DP attacker Myrto Uzuni, who fit neither as a No. 9 nor on the left wing?

4-3-3: Stuver; Biro, Hines-Ike, Svatok, Desler; Wolff, Ilie, Pereira; Nelson, Uzuni, Torres

Portland Timbers

I don't actually have questions about fit with this roster, which has evolved into something that I consider to be well-constructed. It is very obviously thin in places – bordering on catastrophically so in midfield – but I have long made the point that the Timbers need to start getting more out of their down-roster spots and, well, maybe this is it?

Ok, probably not. But the first 13 or 14 guys on the roster should be actively pretty good (and occasionally more than that) for the most part. Not, like, world-beaters – David Da Costa isn't going to carry this team to the top of the conference like Evander did for a big chunk of 2024, and Kristoffer Velde is not going to be Denis Bouanga.

But those guys are good players, and so are Cole Bassett and Antony, and the center forward trio will probably end up on 15-20 combined goals, and Diego Chara still has Father Time in a death grip.

I will probably watch 90% of the total minutes he plays this year. I am begging all of you to appreciate him before he finally hangs 'em up.

My Worry: For one, you need more than 14 guys to make it through a season, and Portland's historic unwillingness to develop players through their pipeline (which, to be clear, it seems like CSO Ned Grabavoy is trying to fix) combined with their low GAM total makes it hard to address that.

For two, James Pantemis was awesome to start 2025, then suffered an injury and was never close to the same guy again. Uh oh.

For three, I'm not sure I've seen a sort of all-encompassing tactical vision from head coach Phil Neville that suggested this team was about to become greater than the sum of its parts. Which means they'll probably go just as far as their pretty good talent can take them.

4-2-3-1: Pantemis; Fory, Miller, Surman, Mosquera; Chara, Bassett; Velde, Da Costa, Antony; Kelsy

Colorado Rapids

I am maybe about to over-index on an preseason, but... the Rapids have been impressive under new head coach Matt Wells.

This comes hand-in-hand with some huge moves – I really thought Djordje Mihailović and Cole Bassett were going to be the foundation of this team for the rest of the decade; they're both gone – within the roster, and an arguably even bigger one within the game model. Out is the very linear, often very high-pressing scheme of the departed Chris Armas, and in is, presumably, a more ball-dominant 4-3-3 (that could be very 4-2-3-1ish depending on Paxten Aaronson's remit).

It's going to be a lot to digest, I think. But I admit that I am intrigued.

My Worry: Uhh, are we sure these pieces fit? Darren Yapi's at left wing, and there's no real, second center back, and Paxten Aaronson wants to play the 8, which means there's no No. 10, which... are we sure these pieces fit?

Are we sure that Wells, whose whole career has been as an assistant under various disappointing head coaching regimes (Scott Parker being the most frequent, with Ange Postecoglou at Spurs the most prominent) is really cut out for this? There's a real element of "plucked from relative obscurity" here, and while that's also true of guys like Jansen and Sørensen, those guys both had time in the big chair. Wells hasn't.

Zack Steffen was awesome last year, by the way. Awesome. And when he wasn't awesome, Colorado lost basically every single time.

What if he returns to what he was in 2024? That alone could tank the whole thing.

4-3-3: Steffen; Vines, Cobb, Holding, Cannon; Ronan, Ojediran, Aaronson; Yapi, Navarro, Sealy

Atlanta United

Yeah I don't know, man. On paper this should be a pretty good team, and they've got a whole org with a track-record of success. That includes new (old) manager Tata Martino, who's back trying to revive the club he helped lead to the league's mountaintop nearly a decade ago. And so here's the whole analysis:

"The roster will presumably play harder for Tata than they did for the departed Ronny Deila."

That's it. That's the whole thing.

There's other stuff I could write about – Steven Alzate at central midfield, and maybe Emmanuel Latte Lath having a Gass Theorem season, maybe an upgrade in goal and the wingers probably both playing on their natural sides.

But really, it's the effort. The buy-in. The vibes. Last year's group was out on all of that, really early in the season. Completely and utterly bought out on Deila.

I don't think that'll be the case in 2026. I think they'll buy in.

My Worry: They maybe just aren't that good? As with the Revs, this could primarily be a talent issue, as none of the three DP attackers were, at any point, top-half of the league at their respective spots last year. And neither were the d-mids, or the backline, or the goalkeepers, or...

I don't think it's a 28-point team. But I don't think it's a 58-point team, either, and I'd probably take the "under" on 48 points.

In the East that's probably not enough.

4-3-3: Hoyos; Amador, Berrocal, Mihaj, Hernández; Alzate, Jacob, Muyumba; Almiron, Latte Lath, Miranchuk

Houston Dynamo

I dinged the Dynamo front office for a lack of direction in my 2025 post-mortem, and so will take this moment to praise them for having a clear vision in the transfer window. I don't think anyone was busier as they spent eight figures on at least four new starters, as well as making LB Felipe Andrade's move permanent.

The highlight of that group is Mateusz Bogusz, who's back in MLS as a DP after a disappointing stint with Cruz Azul. Bogusz reportedly cost more than $6 million; this was not a small deal.

They also picked up guys on the cheap like old friend Héctor Herrera and new friends Franco Negri and Nick Markanich. There's some real knowhow in this group.

My Worry: They brought in 30-year-old Brazilian winger Guillherme as a DP; he's never scored more than four goals in a Serie A season. Bogusz was excellent in 2024 as a false 9, but other than that has never been a goal-scorer. Holdover DP No. 9 Ezequiel Ponce... 10 goals last year. Has scored more than 11 goals in a season exactly once. That was way back in 2018/19.

I just don't think these guys are real needle-movers in this league. They're also suddenly short a right back, thin in defense, and seem committed to starting Jonathan Bond in goal despite all the evidence that they should absolutely not do that.

I'll be surprised if this is a playoff team.

4-2-3-1: Bond; Andrade, Halter, Sviatchenko, Negri(???); Artur, Bouzat; Guilherme, Bogusz, McGlynn; Ponce

Real Salt Lake

Every year I look at this roster, squint a bit, and say something to the effect of "mehhh I don't really know how this is supposed to work." Every year they go out and make the playoffs anyway. It's a triumph of the human spirit.

This year... honestly, I do see the vision. YMMV on whether that's a good thing or bad, but I think there's a little bit more clarity in what's been built, and I hope that with said clarity comes more, uh, clarity in how they play. Like, I want to see them push numbers forward with more purpose and less recklessness, which obviously has the immediate downstream effect of them being tougher to gash on the counter or just harder to play through in general.

I like this. I think it could work.

My Worry: I'm not going to bet on it actually working, though, because changing to a very fluid 3-4-2-1 with rampaging center backs and pitch-controlling central midfielders and attacking wingbacks is, simply put, very very hard. Most teams that try it fail, and most that fail do so because they're too open defensively when possession is lost, and boy does that speak directly at this team's weak spot last year.

There's also the matter of the top-end talent being something less than top-end when compared to the rest of the league. Now, maybe that is slowly (or quickly) revealed to be a misunderstanding of this group on my part, but honestly... they were a 41-point team last year, and they look a lot like a 41-point team this year.

3-4-2-1: Cabral; Engel, Glad, Yedlin; Sanabria, Spierings, Eneli, Gozo; Luna, Guilavogui; Olatunji

New York Red Bulls

Here's my theory of how things will go well for RBNY this year:

1. The two holdover DPs were healthy and productive in 2025, and will hopefully be so again this year.
2. New head coach Michael Bradley had NYRBII playing fun, winning soccer last year, and will translate that up to the first team in a more emphatic way than the now departed Sandro Schwarz managed.
3. Uhhh... there is no third thing on the list.

Shit, man. I might need to drop this team a tier.

My Worry: Dylan Nealis and Justin Che as center backs, eh? Or is it veteran Tim Parker who's going to get the nod? All in front of a 30-year-old journeyman 'keeper who's never been able to lock down a starting job anywhere he's been?

Experiments, reclamation projects, scrap-heap pick-ups, literal children in line for big minutes... it's tough. Even if Emil Forsberg and Eric-Maxim Choupo-Moting produce like last year – and honestly, that feels unlikely given their respective ages – it's just really tough to imagine this is a 50-point team.

4-2-3-1: Horvath; Valencia, Parker, Nealis, Marshall-Rutty; Berggren, Donkor; Ruvalcaba, Forsberg, Cowell; Choupo-Moting

Tier 5: Rebuilding

Let the work commence.

St. Louis City

I like that they have a clear, aligned vision now, one that should serve the team well from the bottom of the org all the way to the top. By all accounts new CSO Corey Wray's unwinding a lot of what his predecessor put in place while, at the same time, trying to create a functional org that's all pulling in the same direction.

It takes more than one transfer window to do all of this. But the moves he's made so far – getting money for a guy (João Klauss) they almost certainly weren't going to bring back; picking up Mamdou Fall on a free – point to a theory of value that I appreciate.

He also appointed a head coach, in Yoann Damet, that basically everyone I've spoken with thinks is going to be good at the job.

My Worry: Can Damet do a "Wilfried Nancy with the 2022 Impact" job with this roster? One where the coach walks into a 1.1 ppg club and turns them into a 1.9 ppg club by being awesome at the job?

That's what it'd take, and I'm not counting on that kind of year-over-year jump.

I'd just be happy with the veterans who are still around being a little more productive, and the Falls (both Mamadou and Fallou) living up to their potential, and some academy products pushing into real minutes.

3-4-2-1: Burki; F. Fall, Polvara, M. Fall; Wallem, Edelman, Lowen, Totland; Hartel, Teuchert; Becher

Toronto FC

I will repeat my point that CSO Jason Hernandez and his staff did good work throughout last year, tearing down an overpaid, ill-fitting roster while collecting heaps of GAM and then adding two players, in Djordje Mihailović and Jose Cifuentes, who are proven at the MLS level and in their respective primes.

That gave them both flexibility and a foundation. Felt like an ideal place to start rebuilding from at the time, and it still is.

My Worry: They need to get to it. TFC went into the offseason with two open DP slots and two open U-22 slots. They go into first kick with two open DP slots and one open U-22 slot. So it hasn't exactly been a lightning rebuild, and points won (or lost) in February count just as much as those won (or lost) in May.

At the moment there's no clear, starting No. 9, the midfield feels slow-footed and I am concerned about the entire defense, as well as goalkeeper Luka Gavran. It's a legit overhaul, which is good – I'm not questioning the need to do that – but legit overhauls tend to take time before they hit (if they do actually hit), and time is not on their side right now.

I will also add that their preseason reviews were, ahem, mixed. Now, maybe Walker Zimmerman just locks in and is able to immediately tie everything together, but that's a big, big ask.

4-3-3: Gavran; Pereira, Gomis, Zimmerman, Laryea; Osorio, Coello, Cifuentes; , Mihailović, Kerr(???), Corbeanu

CF Montréal

I like that they went out and got Iván Jaime, who profiles as a very good No. 10 in this league. And Prince Owusu was productive last year, and I don't hate the idea of collecting young, potentially high-upside center backs.

"Refurbish-and-flip" is a perfectly fine way to make some cash and keep the GAM flowing, and maybe even develop some guys who become cornerstones. And head coach Marco Donadel wasn't bad last year at all.

My Worry: It's Montréal. There's just no reason to believe they'll stick with the coach long-term when the hard times hit, and no reason to believe that, if any of the young players really develop, they'll be around long enough to drive winning soccer.

That's their M.O. as a club. The only constant is entropy.

4-2-3-1: Gillier; Petrasso, Vera, Morales, Bugaj; Piette, Loturi; Escobar, Jaime, Synchuk; Owusu

D.C. United

I've got to admit that I'm at least a little bit intrigued. I really did like a lot of their moves this offseason, in which they added proven contributors in goal, along the backline and up top.

Now, did they overpay for Tai Baribo and especially Louis Munteanu? I think so. But do Baribo and Munteanu fit together up top in a 4-4-2 pressing scheme? I think so.

And we know that Sean Nealis can anchor a backline that's going to press from a 4, and by all accounts they took the right guy with the first pick in the draft in Nikola Markovic, and Sean Johnson should be a significant upgrade in goal (even if he regresses from last year's numbers, which seems certain).

There's not nothing here.

My Worry: There's not much, either. If the press doesn't work they don't have much chance creation to mitigate that, or even to supplement it when things are going well.

I am uneasy about the entire midfield. I am uneasy about left back. I am uneasy about Munteanu – forget trying to justify the $7m transfer fee, there's a chance this guy isn't even an MLS starter.

I am uneasy about a head coach, René Weiler, who wasted precisely zero time throwing players under the bus last year and a CSO, in Dr. Erkut Sogut, who emo-posts on LinkedIn.

"Culture" is a real thing and uhhhhhh, yeah. I'm at least a little bit intrigued!

4-2-2-2: Johnson; Kurokawa, Rowles, Nealis, Herrera; Hopkins, Peltola; Peglow, Clark; Baribo, Munteanu

Sporting KC

I'm running out of steam here, KC folks. I'm sorry. Gonna have to go with bullet points:

• They got a jump on things by hiring David Lee from NYCFC as the new CSO last summer.
• Things subsequently stalled and he didn't hire Raphaël Wicky as head coach until January.
• Wicky – who, I want to emphasize, had 12 wins in 51 games in charge of Chicago earlier this decade – didn't arrive until recently because of paperwork issues.
• They have made minimal signings, which whispers also say are due to paperwork issues.
• The team they're bringing back finished bottom of the West and had the worst underlyings in the league.

Dejan Joveljić, for what it's worth, is really good.

My Worry: Everything else. Manu García, the DP No. 10, has been playing as a No. 8 in preseason, and I have real questions about how that's going to work defensively. I also have questions about how the defense is going to work defensively, and the goalkeeper.

This is one of the most "still under construction" rosters in the history of "still under construction" rosters, and it's being coached by a guy who, again, won fewer than 25% of his games in his previous spin as an MLS head coach.

Feels like it's going to be another very long year in KC.

4-4-1-1: Pulskamp; Bassong, Meyer, James, Reynolds; Harris, Bartlett, Garcia, Suleymanov; Salloi; Joveljic