Tactical Preview: For the first time ever, USMNT go into a knockout round game as favorites

Let's sit with this for a second, because it deserves more than a passing mention before we get into the tactical stuff: for the first time in the history of this program, the US men's national team are walking into a World Cup knockout round game as favorites. Not "live underdogs," which they've scratched a few times, and not "puncher's chance," a hat they've worn a few more. Honest-to-god favorites. The kind of favorites where the betting markets and algorithm-driven projection models are aligned, and where even the unhinged Twitterati who live to hate have to admit something good is happening. And it's a bridge I, for one, have been waiting for this team to cross since we made our World Cup return in 1990.

Thirty-six long years to arrive in new, uncharted territory, and if you've followed this team for any length of time, you know that's not nothing. This is a program that has spent decades being the upstart, the disappointment, the spoiler, and back 'round again. Tournament after tournament in roughly the same place, with roughly the same outcomes.

This time around, it's finally different. This time around, this version of the US really were spectacular in the group stage, and this time around the expanded knockout round field means they're facing a Bosnia & Herzegovina side that is, by any measure, the weakest opponents the US have ever faced in a one-and-done World Cup situation. Mauricio Pochettino may not think they're favorites – “I don’t believe we are the favorites. We see in the last few days how difficult it is for all teams," he told the gathered press on Tuesday afternoon – but everything about the way they've played, and the way the tournament's shaken out thus far suggests the coach is very, very wrong.

And the thing about being favorites is it's a heavier mantle than the US ever had to wear as underdogs. Underdogs play with house money, as they have done against Brazil, Ghana, Belgium and the Netherlands. Sometimes they even win with it, as they did against Mexico.

Favorites play with expectation, and expectation has a way of crushing teams. Panama, at the Copa America and then again in the Nations League? That was largely this group. Couva? Different group, but greater expectations, a heavier mantle and more profound heartbreak.